Let’s just start by saying kudos to the author for not using the painfully obvious title of “Let’s Get Things Strait Regarding Global Trade and Their Overall Value in Flows.” In the bigger picture, there are about 200 straits worldwide, but only 18–20 of them actually matter for global trade, and 9 are considered truly critical choke points. So, these are the straits/canals where closure would cause (and is currently causing) massive global economic shock: Strait of Malacca, Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, Panama Canal, Bab elMandeb, Strait of Gibraltar, Bosphorus Strait, Danish Straits, and of course, the ever-impending blockage of the Taiwan Strait.

What many have learned in the past six months (if you have been paying attention and didn’t already know this) is that a strait is not just some arbitrary body of water among the many arteries that populate global trade routes. Nope. It’s power. The current Iranian governing body (IRGC) has proven to the world that a choke hold on that small Hormuz passage (just 21 miles wide at its most narrow point) is just as effective as a nuclear weapon, if not more. So, now it’s time to get at least a little paranoid about additional points on the planet where the same economic carnage could potentially take place, and how to possibly prevent it from happening.  Let’s take a look at datadriven breakdown of the top choke points (I will use this term repeatedly within this article-apologies in advance but it fits) and the value of trade flowing through each, grounded in the latest 2025–2026 analyses.

The Strait of Malacca handles 23.7% of global seaborne trade and is the world’s busiest shipping lane by value with $2.8 trillion annually in flow. It connects the middle East and East Asia with around 94,000 ship transits per year. These ships handle 23 million barrels/day of oil & petroleum products which is why Malacca is emerging as the next global choke point of concern. According to a 2026 APAC analysis, Malacca is now viewed as the next strategic pressure point following the Hormuz shutdown.  The strait conducts an enormous trade volume inclusive of 40% of global seaborne oil shipments, which would obviously be twice the pain at the pump than the current Hormuz closing has caused. Just imagine, $8.00/gallon average in the U.S., there would be one hell of an uprising. Roughly $3.5 trillion in annual trade passes through Malacca, and guess who is totally dependent on it staying open, China, as 80% of China’s crude oil imports transit Malacca, and twothirds of all Chinese maritime trade flows through it. To say the least, it’s a central lifeline. This is the famous “Malacca Dilemma” where China fears that the U.S., or another adversary, could blockade the strait in a conflict scenario. (Specifically, if China invades Taiwan) Undoubtably, it will be the first move by allies in the region if/when China makes its reunification move. The real vulnerability here isn’t particularly military, but instead legal/financial. The APAC analysis emphasizes that the real risk is not warships but insurance markets, payment systems, and crisis governance. A disruption could occur through insurance withdrawal, sanctions, paymentsystem freezes, and eventual legal disputes over navigation rights. This is why a few Chinese analysts are more than just a little paranoid at this point and time in history. Isn’t the economic carnage via the closure of the Strait of Hormuz setting the stage for exactly why China should not invade Taiwan you ask? Well, it goes a little deeper culturally with Xi rather than it being just about the semiconductors. I liken it to Putin and his endless war of reunification of the once proud Soviet Union. He is hell bent that it must happen during his lifetime, regardless of the consequences for the Russian society (currently lines for rationed petro are 5-6 miles long) thanks to Ukraine hitting 11 of the refineries to date. The revolution for change has been ignited by the younger demographic, but it’s been amazing to see many older Russians as well saying that Putin must go. I thought Xi had recently told Putin to put an end to hostility and make an exit plan. He really should, as things do not look good for the Kremlin right now. Just check the social media posts, as the rhetoric shows no fear! Putin is spending a lot more time these days in a heavily fortified bunker than he is at the Kremlin.

To date, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is showing the world just what $1 trillion annually in lost trade looks like to the global economy. The strait lends itself to the flow of 11.1% of global seaborne trade and is the world’s most critical energy choke point. It handles 34% of global seaborne oil exports, 30% of global LPG exports, and 42,000 ship transits per year. The countries receiving the largest share of oil that passes through Hormuz are China 37.7%, India 14.7%, South Korea 12.0%, Japan 10.9%, and other Asian countries 13.9% (collectively). Together, Asian economies receive 89.2% of all crude oil and condensate shipped through Hormuz. The U.S. receives only 2.5%, reflecting its diversified supply and domestic production, which is a moot point as we are totally responsible for this economic disaster in the making, with no end in sight. I’ve done several podcasts on the subject over the past few months along with my colleague Victoria Holmes from The Dispatch in D.C., and what we have concluded is that there is no such thing as an M.O.U. in this case, because it’s a full fledged M.O.M. at this point, a Memorandum of Misunderstanding. President Trump is apparently contemplating boots on the ground, taking Kharg Island, and escalating this conflict even further. It’s the last thing we need. Besides, the Hegseth war room better take a long look at the terrain surrounding the strait, which is primarily mountains, making any invasion incredibly difficult. I could go on here, but I’ve done 6 recent podcasts to date on the subject, and nothing has changed, so let’s move on. Besides, Iran just launched missiles at U.S. forces in a surprise attack. So much for the ongoing “negotiations” towards a peaceful resolution.

So, the next threat of closure is via the Houthi’s apparently regarding the Bab elMandeb Strait with roughly $2 trillion annually in trade flow. I’s a vital link between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal. It’s responsible for 8.7% of global seaborne trade inclusive of 12% of global seaborne oil exports, and 9% of LNG exports. What we don’t need is the “double-whammy” of both the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab el-Mandeb closed at the same time. The countries most dependent on the Bab elMandeb Strait are those whose trade routes rely heavily on the Red Sea and Suez Canal corridor or whose energy exports must pass through the strait. Grounded in the search results, the dependency breaks into three groups: Gulf energy exporters, Asian/European importers, and Red Sea littoral states. Gulf Countries are dependent on Bab elMandeb to move crude oil, refined products, and LNG northbound toward Europe via the Suez Canal. Those most affected are: Saudi Arabia, who is increasingly reliant on its Red Sea port of Yanbu for crude exports and uses Bab elMandeb to reach Europe and the Mediterranean. United Arab Emirates (UAE) exports crude and refined products through the Gulf of Aden, through Bab elMandeb and the Suez. Qatar because all of its LNG exports to Europe (30 million tons/year) must also transit Bab elMandeb. Kuwait & Iraq have significant volumes of refined products and crude that move through the strait toward Europe. The problem with these countries and their dependence is that there is no viable land alternative for reaching Europe as the Bab elMandeb is the southern gate to the Suez Canal. Asian & European Importers who depend on Bab elMandeb due to the fact that it is the critical link between Asia and Europe also would suffer. India is identified as one of the countries likely to feel major effects if Bab elMandeb is disrupted since it imports 85% of its crude oil, and a significant share of Saudi and Russian crude reaches India via the Red Sea–Bab elMandeb corridor. The EU, European Union would also be entangled in the mess as Europe receives Gulf crude and LNG via Bab elMandeb via the Suez Canal. Roughly 12% of global trade and 30% of global container traffic pass through this corridor. Asian manufacturing economies have an indirect dependence as goods moving between Europe and Asia rely on Bab elMandeb as the southern gateway to Suez. This includes China, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian exporters whose containerized goods move westbound. There are also the Red Sea Littoral States who are geographically dependent as these countries rely on Bab elMandeb for regional trade, food imports, and energy flows such as Egypt, who depends on Bab elMandeb to feed traffic into the Suez Canal, which is a major revenue source and why they maintain a naval force in the Red Sea to protect this corridor. Djibouti & Eritrea, directly adjacent to the strait rely on it for nearly all maritime commerce and host foreign military bases due to the strait’s strategic importance. Yemen controls the eastern shore, and its instability directly affects the strait. Houthi attacks have already forced major shipping companies to divert around Africa and that is getting very expensive. The additional cost of rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope due to the Strait of Hormuz closure is enormous typically adding millions of dollars per voyage and increasing total freight costs by 200–400% via the additional days and sometimes weeks of delay in transit. 

The Suez Canal, which the Trump Administration states we should never have given away, is the cornerstone of Europe–Asia trade. It opened on November 17^th, 1969. The canal normally handles 19.6 million TEUs/year in Europe–Asia container trade and is a major portion of the $600B+ trade lane. In 2025, Houthi attacks cut Suez tonnage 70% below 2024 levels. The Houthis never physically blocked the Suez Canal, but their attacks in the Red Sea and Bab elMandeb caused a massive collapse in traffic, triggering billions of dollars in trade losses, a 90% drop in container transits, and freight rate spikes of 80–700%. I must also cite another example here regarding the financial consequence of even a non-military closure. Remember the tanker the Ever Given, that massive 400meter container ship that blocked 400+ other ships in the Suez Canal in March 2021. Well, that cost roughly $9.6 billion per day in lost trade, and the canal was blocked for 6.5 days, for a total cost of just shy of $57 billion. I think the owners of the massive 20,000 TEU vessel tried to claim Force Majeure, that a strong, very strong, Godlike wind blew it sideways. I don’t think so said the Admiralty Court of the High Court of Justice in England and Wales and later confirmed by the English Court of Appeals, since the Ever Given weighed about 224,000 tons when it became stuck in the Suez Canal. After months of negotiation, the ship’s owner (Shoei Kisen Kaisha) and insurers agreed to pay the Suez Canal Authority a $550 million settlement. (BTW- The Suez Canal is located in northeastern Egypt, running north–south across the Isthmus of Suez, and connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea).

Of course, we cannot rationally discuss the various straits and how detrimental their closing is to global trade without covering the Taiwan Strait where “trillions of dollars” flow through annually. Xi Jinping really needs to consider this potential fleecing of oneself, since 33% of China’s trade, approximately $1.3 trillion annually, flows through this strait, and if it was blocked for any considerable amount of time, it would be devastating to an already somewhat weakened local economy. Couple this with the allies moving on closing Malacca, and as previously mentioned, it would be a nightmare for China economically speaking. The Taiwan Strait is one of the two busiest choke points in the South China Sea handling the most crucial of elements in trade, semiconductors. It’s a lifeline for China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan of course, and global markets in general. Speaking of the South China Sea, where additional “trillions of dollars” flow annually in trade makes it the world’s most consequential maritime corridor especially with all the current military might just itching for a legit conflict beyond just firing water cannons. 100 Chinese naval ships recently surrounded Taiwan in a show of force.

Let’s briefly look at a few more potential strait closure catastrophes in other parts of the world that aren’t likely, but who knows in today’s geopolitical chaos. For instance, annual trade flows through The Strait of Gibraltar are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars, meaning even a short closure would have massive global economic consequences. The Strait of Gibraltar is the only maritime gateway between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. It is a natural choke point, only 7.7 nautical miles wide, controlling access to Southern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, and the Suez Canal (via the Mediterranean) Its closure would instantly sever the maritime link between the Atlantic and Mediterranean. Major shipping routes would collapse via ships traveling between Europe and Africa, Europe and the Middle East, and Europe and Asia, forcing detours around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of miles and weeks to voyages. It would also put strain on alternative canals like the Suez, and Panama. The economic Impact of trade flows is worth “hundreds of billions” being at risk. Regional economic disruption would be felt primarily in countries and industries relying on Mediterranean access such as European automotive supply chains, agricultural imports, North African export industries and Spanish and Moroccan port economies.

How about the English Channel? Otherwise known as the Dover Strait, it is one of the busiest maritime passages on earth with a vessel count of 500+ ships per day in transit. It is critical for Europe–UK–North America trade. The Strait of Dover is the busiest of the six major global passages. Cargo ships account for 50% of all crossings and traffic levels are considered high vessel density, higher than Suez, Hormuz, Bab elMandeb, Taiwan Strait, and Cape of Good Hope. Note: About 24 million deadweight tons (DWT) of cargo per month were moving around the Cape of Good Hope as of late April–May 2026 — a record level driven by the large-scale diversion of ships away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

And now, the Bosphorus Strait. About 423 million tons of cargo pass through the Bosphorus Strait each year, based on the most recent, authoritative 2025–2026 Turkish maritime data. This makes the Bosphorus one of the world’s most important trade corridors, especially for oil, bulk commodities, and containerized goods moving between the Black Sea and global markets. The cargo through the strait in 2025 included massive volumes of oil, LNG, bulk commodities, and containerized freight. The following nations are fully dependent on the Bosphorus for seaborne trade: Russia exports crude oil, petroleum products, grain, steel via Novorossiysk; 2.9 million barrels/day of oil move through the Turkish Straits, Ukraine moves grain exports (wheat, corn) from Odesa and other ports; 90%+ of Ukraine’s grain exports require Bosphorus transit, Georgia relies on Bosphorus for access to global markets via Poti and Batumi ports, Romania uses the strait for grain, oil, and Danube-connected cargo, and Bulgaria exports and imports via Burgas and Varna must pass through the strait. 

 To summarize, moving through the Bosphorus Strait is 20+ million tons of grain annually (Ukraine, Russia, Romania, Bulgaria, 3–4% of global crude oil & petroleum trade (3 million barrels/day), steel, coal, machinery, bulk commodities from Black Sea ports, and general cargo & RoRo (roll on roll off) shipments connecting Europe and Asia via Istanbul’s port system. These countries rely heavily on the Bosphorus because the Black Sea is a closed basin with no other maritime outlet. If the Bosphorus or Dardanelles were closed, all five nations become effectively landlocked, forcing trade onto slow, expensive overland routes. 

Let us not forget the Danish Straits that carry 70,000 vessels per year, including 175 tankers per month transporting, and 192 vessels per day along with $60 billion in Russian oil. This represents 40% of Russia’s seaborne petroleum exports. Container traffic is also enormous, with 15% of global container volumes crossing the Baltic and funneling through the Danish Straits. This makes the Danish Straits one of the most strategically important trade corridors in the world. The Danish Straits consist of three parallel passages: Great Belt – main deepdraft route, The Sound  – secondary route, and Little Belt for regional traffic. Together, they connect the Baltic Sea, North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. This is one of the highestdensity maritime corridors in Europe. I must insert here a completely insane hypothetical situation simply because a potential invasion of Greenland came out of the mouth of the President of the United States. If this ever actually happened, it would severely disrupt Denmark’s and the EU’s North Atlantic trade. Denmark is part of the EU single market and Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark. An invasion would therefore trigger EU sanctions, a NATO crisis, North Atlantic shipping rerouting, insurance premiums out the whazoo, and Arctic shipping corridor shutdowns affecting hundreds of billions in EU–U.S. trade, and not just Greenland’s own trade. Absolute insanity from a geopolitical perspective.

The English Channel, separate from, but part of the Dover Strait is one of the busiest by vessel count with 500+ ships per day in transit. It is critical for Europe–UK–North America trade. 416.7 million tons of freight is handled by UK major ports in the latest annual cycle — a substantial portion of which transits the English Channel. Closure would force all shipping to reroute around Scotland or Ireland, adding days of transit time, sharply increasing fuel costs, and overwhelming alternative ports. Based on choke pointclosure modeling from the Strait of Hormuz all would apply such as global trade growth cut in half (UNCTAD), insurance premiums can quadruple for vessels forced into longer, riskier routes, and supply chain rerouting causes inflation spikes, especially in food and energy. While the Channel does not carry global oil like Hormuz, it carries Europe’s highestvalue manufactured goods, meaning the shock would be felt in UK GDP (manufacturing, retail, food supply), French, Belgian, Dutch, and German export sectors, automotive and aerospace industries, perishable goods markets (fresh produce, pharmaceuticals). The ultimate consequence being that the UK becomes partially isolated from Europe via EU supply chains losing their fastest shortsea link. Ports like Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg face severe congestion, and rail and road freight via the Channel Tunnel becomes the only fast route — and it would be overwhelmed instantly.

In all this gloom and doom, for grins I wanted to take a look at the Singapore Strait, as Singapore handles a great deal of trade via one of the most sophisticated ports on the planet and hasn’t been getting the attention it deserves lately due to all of the global conflict elsewhere. The Singapore Strait handles over 620 million tons of cargo per year and more than 41 million TEUs, making it the world’s largest container transshipment corridor. The Straits of Malacca and Singapore together handle 94,000 vessel transits per year. These ships carry 30% of global seaborne trade placing annual trade value easily into the trillions of dollars, though exact valuation depends on cargo mix.  Total cargo through the Singapore Strait (2024–2025) was 622.67 million tons, and 2025 cargo throughput: was 615.89 million tons. Impressive. This includes Singapore processing $41.12 million TEUs back in 2024 which was a new record and 44.66 million TEUs in 2025, the highest container throughput in its history. About 90% of these containers are transshipments, meaning they are passing through the Singapore Strait in route to another country. This actually makes the strait the single most important container gateway in the world. In this case, once again, don’t poke the bear, who is China. China is Singapore’s #1 trade partner with exports to China at around $61 billion in 2025, and $45 billion in 2026 thus far. Across all sources, China consistently appears as Singapore’s largest export destination. China is also Singapore’s largest import source, narrowly ahead of the U.S. and Malaysia. I must also mention here that the Singapore port is the most modern on the planet. Singapore has been ranked the world’s top maritime center for 13 consecutive years, driven by its automated port systems, integrated digital platform, green shipping corridors, and dense maritime services ecosystem. It connects to 600+ ports in 120+ countries, making it one of the most globally integrated hubs, so as trade turmoil escalates, in many cases Singapore gets the redirects. BTW, the strait sits between Singapore (to the north) and Indonesia’s Riau Islands (to the south), connecting the Strait of Malacca on the west to the South China Sea on the east.

And last but certainly not least is the importance of the Panama Canal and trade which has been waning as severe drought in 2024–2025 reduced transits significantly. Still, about $270–$300 billion in trade passes through the Panama Canal each year. which makes the Panama Canal one of the top three most economically important maritime choke points in the world (alongside Suez and Malacca). This is where I pull up the video clip in my head of Van Halen performing live, with David Lee Roth swinging back and forth on a rope yelling Panama! Pana-mah-ah-ah-ah-ah-ah! Why? Because it’s crazy. Speaking of that, listen to this: A full blockage of the Panama Canal would trigger one of the most severe trade disruptions in the Western Hemisphere and, according to the best available research, would create a bigger global shock than a Suez Canal closure. A complete closure would reduce global trade by 2.9%, the largest loss among all major choke points discussed in this article. This exceeds the estimated impact of a Suez shutdown (2.5%) and Malacca (1.7%). About 6% of global seaborne trade normally transits the Panama Canal, but its strategic position makes its disruption disproportionately damaging. Countries hit hardest would be Panama of course with trade falling by 45%, followed by Peru, Mexico, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Haiti, Venezuela, United States, and Canada because these countries rely heavily on Pacific–Atlantic connectivity for energy, agriculture, and manufactured goods. A closure would also immediately force ships to reroute around Cape Horn or the Cape of Good Hope and we’ve already discussed that financial headache. Among all global choke points, Panama is now considered the most critical single point of potential failure in maritime trade.

In closing, I am watching CNN in the background where the President is in Michigan today 7/27/2026 telling everyone that we are once again talking with Iran, and are close to making a deal, while at the same time the Iranian officials are saying once again that no talks are currently taking place. If this rather insane status quo lingers for up to a year, and we are already halfway there, ultimately trillions will be lost in global trade. Let’s get more specific. A daily loss given recent modeling of the current crisis puts the ongoing economic damage at about $20 billion per day while Hormuz remains shut. So, the one-year extrapolation in simple math is $20 billion in losses per day x 365 days = $7.3 trillion. If the administration decides to put boots on the ground, we’re looking at between 2-3 years, or more in losses…..and at the current rate, that’s between $14 trillion, or even $21 trillion….but by then, the global economy is deep into recession.