Recent announcements by former U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the potential imposition of import duties on goods from Mexico have created uncertainty for many companies dealing with the IMMEX program.[1] Trump first threated to impose a 25% import duty on all goods, and then on steel and aluminum from Mexico.  The concern for IMMEX is that if the U.S. imposes import duties on Mexican goods entering the U.S. for consumption, the advantages of IMMEX could be significantly reduced.  Although companies may continue benefiting under IMMEX in Mexico, they would still face Trump’s additional duties in the U.S. Furthermore, Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum has indicated that Mexico would respond with retaliatory measures, potentially triggering an extended or endless trade conflict that could impact businesses on both sides of the border.

Sheinbaum has acknowledged the significance of trade between the two nations and the mutual benefits of their economic relationship, and that IMMEX plays and crucial role in this scenario. Mexico recently became the U.S.’s largest trading partner, underscoring the deep integration of their economies. Therefore, imposing tariffs on Mexican goods would not only harm Mexican businesses but also negatively affect U.S. companies operating in Mexico, because the grand majority of IMMEX are U.S. owned and over 90% of its exports are to the U.S.

A key question arises: What is the future of IMMEX? While the answer remains uncertain, we may look back in history for some background on the U.S. Bracero and the Wetback Program, and how these resulted in Mexico creating certain programs to import materials from the U.S. to produce goods to be sent to the U.S. for consumption, which evolved on what we know as IMMEX.   Also, current government policy documents might provide some insight. The National Development Plan 2025-2030, the Mexico Plan, and the Master Plan outline strategic initiatives aimed at economic growth and trade facilitation.

National Development Plan 2025-2030

This plan establishes the framework for programming and budgeting within the Federal Public Administration. Among its 100 specific commitments, key provisions include:

• Maintaining the separation between economic and political forces
• Digitizing processes and services
• Positioning Mexico as an innovation and technology hub
• Increasing wages above inflation rates
• Strengthening PEMEX (the state-owned petroleum company) and CFE (the state-owned energy company)
• Continuing economic incentives for border regions
• Expanding infrastructure projects, including new bridges with the U.S. and the Maya Train
• Developing up to 3,000 km of new passenger train lines
• Improving road and freight transportation
• Establishing the National Council for Regional Development and Relocalization
• Others

Mexico Plan

This initiative, which is presented by the federal government and the private sector aims to:

• Promote re-localization and increase domestic and regional content
• Substitute imports and revitalize the “Made in Mexico” program
• Create high-paying jobs in manufacturing and services
• Enhance local supply chains for high-value products
• Support regional development and scientific innovation
• Strengthen continental integration and economic equity

• Reduce poverty
• Position Mexico among the world’s top 10 economies
• Increase investment and generate up to 1.5 million jobs
• Ensure that 50% of national consumption is supplied domestically
• Expand national content in global supply chains by 15% in key industries (automotive, aerospace, electronics, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals)
• Simplify company registration and IMMEX applications
• Train 150,000 new professionals and technical workers annually
• Attract investment with environmentally responsible practices
• Others.

Master Plan

Presented by the Tax Administration Service (SAT), the Master Plan aims to collect 5.3 billion MXN in 2025 without increasing tax rates, instead emphasizing tax compliance. This plan enables taxpayers to rectify outstanding debts through reduced penalties and sanctions. Additionally, SAT will leverage technology to monitor compliance, prevent corruption, and combat smuggling, especially in industries at high risk of tax evasion. Specific measures against contraband and tax/customs violations include identifying:

• IMMEX – VAT certification violations and miscalculations
• Failure to return temporary importations
• Errors in tariff classification and customs valuation
• Errors in pedimentos
• Violations to tariff preferential treatment under free trade agreements
• Others.

From an optimistic standpoint, one can say IMMEX will continue providing customs and tax benefits and that the U.S. will not charge import duties on goods produced by IMMEX because this program is crucial for maintaining an optimal business relationship between the two countries, and because there is a profound economic, but also social and political interdependence between the two economies. In addition, the National Development Plan and Mexico Plan offer promising prospects for the IMMEX industry, aiming to enhance and expand its operations and to develop new business for local and regional content.  In fact, some examples of the government’s attempt to crystallize those plans and attract foreign investment and replace import (mainly from Asia) it recently published a decree offering tax incentives for the relocalization of new companies, it announced the Olinia project, which is a new car to be 100% developed and produced in Mexico,  and also announced the Kutsari project to design and produce in Mexico semiconductors for the automotive, electronic, medical industry,

However, the current geopolitical events along with Trump’s threats have resulted in uncertainty for many, including IMMEX.  Moreover, a heightened scrutiny under the Master Plan could pose risks and legal uncertainty if authorities overextend their regulatory reach when auditing IMMEX companies.  For example, SAT and Mexican Customs have been criticized for suspending and cancelling IMMEX-VAT certifications, the importers’ licenses, digital seals, for blocking bank accounts, for using different criteria on similar cases, etc. and all this without due process.

Ultimately, safeguarding the IMMEX program and ensuring its continuity relies on maintaining strong U.S. – Mexico trade relations and for the Mexico government to promote, facilitate, strengthen, attract, etc. foreign investment through IMMEX.

The U.S. – Mexico partnership benefits both nations by fostering regional competitiveness on a global scale. However, this cooperation hinges on whether the U.S., Mexico, and Canada agree to extend the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) beyond 2026.  The USMCA review/renegotiation has already begun, primarily through Trump’s threats to impose import duties against goods from Mexico.  Without a doubt, threats will continue and the coming months will reveal how all parties navigate these evolving trade dynamics, and how the IMMEX future will be defined.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended to provide any legal advice because this is for informational purposes only.  You should not rely on this to make a business decision.

[1] As we have discussed in other articles, IMMEX (“Industria Manufacturera, Maquiladora y de Servicios de Exportación”) is a Mexican government program that facilitates the importation of materials into Mexico for the production of goods that are subsequently exported. Companies complying with the program’s legal requirements, statutory time limits, and certification processes benefit from reduced import duties (IGI), exemption from value-added tax (VAT), and lower Merchandise Processing Fees (DTA) in Mexico.